NOAA just released its 2025 hurricane forecast. Here’s what to know.
As Tampa Bay continues to lick its wounds from last year’s devastating hurricanes, storm experts Thursday said to gear up for what could be another active season.
Hurricane experts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said they are expecting an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. The agency said it is anticipating up to 13 to 19 named storms, of which six to 10 could become hurricanes and three to five could ramp up into a major hurricane, a Category 3 storm or higher.
Forecasters expect a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
Experts said the forecast is influenced by several factors including the globe’s neutral conditions — which means the planet is experiencing neither a La Niña nor an El Niño — and warmer-than-average ocean temperatures.
“We do know that during neutral events, we have about two and half to three more named storms than you would during El Niño events, so we’re allowing for that,” said Matthew Rosencrans, a Climate Prediction Center researcher who helped develop the forecast.
Rosencrans said neutral conditions are a driving factor behind the above-normal forecast. The neutral phase won‘t be enough to impede the favorable storm conditions in the warm Atlantic.
The 2025 federal outlook aligns with other early season forecasts released last month.
Colorado State University, a school renowned for its hurricane research, said in April it also expects “above-normal” tropical activity this year.
Graham emphasized the need for residents to make their hurricane plans early, saying that every Category 5 storm that has hit the United States was a tropical storm or weaker just three days before making landfall.
“Big ones that hit this country are fast,” Graham said. “That’s why the preparedness we’re talking about today, you gotta have the plan early, because the big ones are really quick.”
The event was held in Louisiana for the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, one of the deadliest storms in United States history.
Graham emphasized several improvements made to forecasting in the years since, from longer lead times to more accurate forecasts ahead of storms, which has led to lower death tolls along coasts.
“The water is the biggest killer in these things,” Graham said.
During Hurricane Helene, 12 people in Pinellas County and two people in Hillsborough drowned. And while the death toll was significant in coastal Tampa Bay, Graham emphasized the need to understand the dangers of inland flooding.
Helene dropped more than 30 inches of rain in portions of the country hundreds of miles from the coast, said Laura Grimm, NOAA‘s acting administrator.
As the globe has warmed due to climate change, it’s led to instances of heavier rainfall. As the planet warms, the atmosphere is able to hold more moisture, Graham said.
”We need help to be able to really reach out to communities to let them know the dangers of water — inland, coastal — the rainfall is heavy year round," Graham said.
Speakers on Thursday fielded several questions regarding cuts to the weather service and to NOAA.
Mass firings and early retirements have stripped away at the agencies since the start of 2025, leaving some local weather service stations without fully operational staff.
In Tampa Bay, the local weather service is down by two meteorologists, fairing better than other stations across the country.
Ken Graham said he did not anticipate cuts to the agencies would impact hurricane forecasting this year, compared to previous years.
“We will be able to make sure that the warnings go out, and we have the data that we need,” Graham said. “Hurricane hunters are also ready to go, both with NOAA and the Air Force.”
The National Hurricane Center had its best forecasting season ever last year, according to a hurricane center report grading its 2024 forecasts that included Helene and Milton, two of Tampa Bay’s most devastating storms in recent history.
“I’m going to end this with, we’re ready, we’re ready for this,” Graham said. “I need everyone in the country to be ready as well.”